Predicting the Next Middle East Corporate Landscape

Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly deemed a debt consolidation year, in which diversification-led development becomes more deeply embedded in the region's financial model, lowering dependence on hydrocarbons and increasing resilience to external shocks. Forecasts from significant institutions broadly assemble on a more powerful GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued non-oil expansion, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift towards more positive general conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks global development easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would place the region materially ahead of the world average and a little above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, enhancing the GCC's status as a reasonably high-growth pocketprovided that regional risk conditions stay included and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently account for more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has continued to rise as governments expand financial investment in services, infrastructure, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity throughout the GCC is forecasted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Navigating the Next GCC Corporate Environment

Public-sector financial investment and reform remain central to sustaining this pattern. Policy measures focused on drawing in foreign direct financial investment, alleviating foreign ownership guidelines, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector participation continue to underpin non-oil growth and lower the region's exposure to oil rate volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer control the growth outlook, oil profits are expected to play an encouraging function in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude prices to fall listed below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is forecast to rise again in the 2nd half of the year, with a full loosening up of staying production caps most likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly encouraging of growth. Inflation is expected to remain low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent throughout the area in 2026. Stable costs are helping protect real family incomes and underpin customer spending, which Oxford Economics anticipates to grow by approximately 3.5 percent over 20262027.